The Church of England might look different

Almost exactly thirteen years ago, I attempted to help the Deanery (or ‘Mission Area’ as it was briefly fashionable to call it at the time) of which I was Rural Dean to recognise the level of change which we faced, and I was sufficiently impressed with myself both a year later to reproduce much of it as the second post I put up on this Blog and now to want to return to it again.

The physical landscape around us changes gradually until it becomes unrecognisable.  Some change we hardly notice, such as the slow erosion caused by a river.  Some change is observable over a few years, such as the retreat of a cliff.  Some change is instant, such as the result of a levies breaking or land slipping.

In the past, change in the Church of England has been of the first sort.  In the 150 years before I was confirmed in 1974 the pattern of clergy deployment, relating to society, theology and worship... changed fundamentally without any of the individual increments being revolutionary.

In the present, change in the Church of England is of the second sort.  The Alterative Service Book 1980 came and went in just twenty years, and the number of clergy deployed...  [here] today is half the number in the Pastoral Plan of the early 1990s.

What is hardly grasped by anyone involved is that change in the Church of England immediate future will be of the third sort.  The ground beneath us is moving.  The pressures created by the demography of our congregations and the tightening our finances (as well as shifts in society) have been building inexorably.

The demography of our congregations is such that the presence of those who were formed as present and future members of the Church of England in the 1920s, 30s, 40s and 50s has masked the startlingly smaller number so formed in the 1960s, 70s, 80s and 90s, but as they begin to die the huge gap is exposed.

The tightening of our finances has reached the point when we need to subscribe... over £100 a day to deploy a stipendiary clergyperson, before we even begin to finance our church activities and buildings; this will continue to increase in real terms....

... on a specific day in the not too distant future the combination of these pressures will mean that we suddenly cease to be able to operate as we are.

Some people of all ages will continue to make Christian commitment, and many people will continue to look to the established church for varieties of Christian ministry, but the numbers of those committed will not be able to sustain anything like our present provision of buildings or stipendiary ministry.

Some small parts of the Mission Area continue to operate as if change is still very gradual...  [so] change doesn’t have to be faced at the moment at all.

But the majority of the Mission Area operates as if rapid change is enough; ... places where ten years ago a priest lived next door a church which was his or her sole responsibility have all ceased to operate in this way; systematic development of authorised lay ministry and alternative worship is common.

Hardly anyone operates as if the major crisis is coming, and the ugly experiences of our Methodist neighbours when seeking to bring together three small churches in the centre of our Mission Area is one indication of why we have shied away from seeking to propose anything bold...

... we know (as the Methodists do) that the personal investment of most of us in the particular congregation of which we are part means that coming to a common mind about which places to identify and then willingly ceasing regular worship in the others is a task which may well be beyond us.

So are we more likely to wait until the levies break or the land slips, until further specific congregations become unviable or until the provision of stipendiary ministry across particular parts of the Mission Area becomes impossible, and make emergency plans in the new landscape only when we can see it?

Since then a complementary evolutionary (rather than geological) image has come to mind, remembering that the mechanism of evolution often appears to have been sudden steps rather than imperceptible increments.

A disaster (of climate or flood or famine), perhaps even a near extinction event, happens.  In happening it creates a pinch point such that only a fraction of a species survives, and new born members of this species will descend from those survivors alone.  Whether it was the unusual length of a foraging snout or the accidental camouflage provided by a minority fur colour or some other suddenly advantageous dexterity or stamina, those without it will have no children.

So, it is not a surprise to find that the sudden closing down of much of our economy put straight out of business some firms which were already precarious, and now threatens to do so for a significant proportion of other previously flourishing small and medium sized businesses as well.

And it is not surprising that serious worries arise about the viability of the business models on which our dioceses and parishes are operating.  Is this the breaking of levies, the slipping of land, the near extinction event, the evolutionary pinch point?  If it is, what will the landscape look like when we set out of isolation?

On Wednesday, the latest in the Bishop of Leeds’ e-mails to his clergy named this fear.

Some of you will be wondering what will happen when we re-enter and re-launch in due course.  I am also aware that there is some fear about the sustainability of the church in the light of an economic depression/recession, loss of finance to parishes and a plunging stock market.  I just want to reassure you that discussions are going on nationally and in the diocese about how to anticipate, mitigate or negotiate the challenges that might confront us.  I am not worried about this at all.  We are a people who deal with reality and work out how to respond faithfully to any challenges that come our way.  We are getting ahead of the game in this, but we don’t have firm data with which to work yet.  I simply want to reassure you that the thinking and scenario planning is being done at every level.  What is clear is that the Church of England might look different in the future – even if our core vocation does not change.

I am grateful for his positive tone.  I just wonder what ‘might look different in the future’, now so clearly named, will actually mean.

Before the sudden crisis, there was already great popularity and significant strategic funding being directed to establish franchises of (and imaginative variations on) the Holy Trinity, Brompton approach to mission and church life.  Perhaps this was already anticipated to be one well adapted potential survivor of and parent of Church of England life.

But has there been real evidence that this or any other model was already particularly well adapted for often ancient parishes churches at the centre of villages of 500, 2000 or 3500 people at present lay-led and largely attended by those in their 70s and 80s whose economic viability has looked vulnerable for some time and might now be suddenly tipped over?

And are those stipendiary clergy most like me (as some of the last 1000 blog posts has sometimes identified and admitted) ill-adapted parts of the present logistical and theological vulnerability? 

Meanwhile, the picture is the Easter garden created in front of the house here.