In a recent post I speculated that the recent local and European elections suggested the likely pattern of votes in a normal constituency at the next General Election would be:
Conservative and Labour: 60% between them; the split between them in any particular constituency determining which of them wins it.
UKIP: 25%; not good enough to gain any seats
All others combined: 15%; the Lib Dems in particular taking punishingly low share of the vote.
The Newark By-Election result last week was then:
Conservative and Labour: 63% between them; the much larger share of this went to the Conservatives in this one.
UKIP: 26%; enough to ‘come second’.
All others combined: 11%; the Lib Dems share only being 3%.
So little to undermine the theory there then!
But the pattern in any given By-Election doesn’t usually project forward to the pattern in the following General Election so, although a little pleased with myself, I’m not resting on my political-prediction laurels yet.
Meanwhile, the redundant church at Wispington which we visited recently is dedicated to St Margaret of Antioch and it is she who appears in this carving there – she was swallowed by a dragon but safely brought up again.